Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-15 15:19

55%
Win Probability
+4.3
Projected Margin
CI: [-15.7 to +24.3]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
5
Bust Risk
Jameson Williams (48%), Omarion Hampton (52%), Marcus Mariota (58%), Bucky Irving (49%), Juwan Johnson (61%)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Marcus Mariota NYG18.220.0BOOMHIGH
RB Bucky Irving ATL15.214.0MODERATEHIGH
RB Omarion Hampton KC11.710.0MODERATELOW
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba IND20.622.0BOOMHIGH
WR Jameson Williams LAR13.918.0BOOMMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson CAR9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers IND8.513.0BOOMMEDIUM
D/ST Bears D/ST CLE6.79.0MODERATEHIGH
WR Rashee Rice LAC17.211.0BUSTMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chargers D/ST () 52% boom / 17% bust
DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 45% boom / 19% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 18% bust
ADD Evan Engram (TE) 31% boom / 23% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings (4-10). With projected 136 points vs opponent's ~113 points, we enter as clear favorites. KEY MOVES: Start Marcus Mariota (QB13 ECR vs NYG's 31st-ranked pass defense), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR in elite matchup vs IND), and Bears D/ST (top-5 defense vs struggling Cleveland). WEATHER ALERT: Jordan Love (QB) faces extreme cold in Green Bay (9°F, -35 wind chill) - benched in favor of Mariota. Hunter Henry benched due to Buffalo's elite TE coverage (rank 2, allow only 3.6 fppg). LOCKED: Bucky Irving (8.1 pts actual from TNF). FLEX: Rashee Rice over Tetairoa McMillan (16.0 vs 13.0).

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

136.1 - 93.4 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Completed (15)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Marcus Mariota QB QB ✓ 14.7 18.2 20.0 -5.3
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 8.1 15.2 14.0 -5.9
Omarion Hampton RB RB ✓ 7.5 11.7 10.0 -2.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR ✓ 18.3 20.6 22.0 -3.7
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 12.1 17.2 11.0 +1.1
Juwan Johnson TE TE ✓ 7.0 9.7 10.0 -3.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 26.4 13.9 18.0 +8.4
Jason Myers K K ✓ 24.0 8.5 13.0 +11.0
Bears D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 18.0 6.7 9.0 +9.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE ✓ 2.4 10.8 6.0 -3.6
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE ✓ 2.8 10.3 5.0 -2.2
Jacoby Brissett (bench) QB BE ✓ 20.6 13.9 16.0 +4.6
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 13.9 14.8 17.0 -3.1
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE ✓ 4.5 13.2 11.0 -6.5
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE ✓ 5.6 10.0 6.0 -0.4

Games Pending (2)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 4.2 4.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
136.1 Actual
127.0 LLM Total
136.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Completed (14)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Caleb Williams QB QB ✓ 19.0 15.9 --- +3.0
Jonathan Taylor RB RB ✓ 13.1 17.6 --- -4.5
A.J. Brown WR WR ✓ 12.1 16.8 --- -4.7
Justin Jefferson WR WR ✓ 4.2 15.7 --- -11.5
Dalton Schultz TE TE ✓ 21.6 8.9 --- +12.7
Emeka Egbuka WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 10.4 12.0 --- -1.6
Jake Elliott K K ✓ 7.0 8.0 --- -1.0
Saints D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 6.0 5.9 --- +0.1
C.J. Stroud (bench) QB BE ✓ 23.4 17.3 --- +6.1
Courtland Sutton (bench) WR BE ✓ 24.3 13.1 --- +11.2
Jakobi Meyers (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.1 11.7 --- +0.4
Khalil Shakir (bench) WR BE ✓ 11.5 10.5 --- +1.0
Sean Tucker (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.7 2.9 --- +3.8
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) WR BE ✓ 16.4 14.7 --- +1.7

Opponent Games Pending (2)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Kenneth Gainwell RB RB 12.6 ---
David Njoku (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
93.4 Opp Actual
95.0 Opp LLM Total
105.9 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +32.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 28% BUST, 49% MODERATE, 23% BOOM (historical). XGB: 27.9% boom, 23.7% bust (this week). Both agree MODERATE most likely. SEA defense rank 12 is middling. O/U 46.0 supports passing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 46.0ˢ | Def Rank: 5ˢ | ECR: 17ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BUST, 2% MODERATE, 73% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.7% boom, 39.2% bust (this week). Unusual MC distribution. Reddit: first to throw 3 TDs vs HOU all year in Week 15. But HOU defense rank 2 vs QB suggests regression. Mode: MODERATE (cautious). Projection: 16.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5ˢ | Def Rank: 2ˢ | ECR: 21ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Marcus Mariota (WSH vs NYG)

Projections: ESPN 18.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 15% BUST, 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.1% boom, 57.9% bust (this week). XGB bust unreliable. NYG defense rank 31 vs QB (23.6 PPG allowed) = ELITE matchup. Jayden Daniels shutdown means full starting role. Rushing upside intact. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within 13-31 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5ˢ | Def Rank: 31ˢ | ECR: 13ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0--2.1-2.1
13BYE14.8-23.3+8.4
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11BYE18.2-15.4-2.8
10BYE16.3-18.7+2.4
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8BYE16.9-11.3-5.6
7BYE0.0-3.9+3.9
6BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4ATL0.0-16.2+16.2
3BYE17.0-20.3+3.2
2BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
1BYE0.2-0.0-0.2
  • Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
  • Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
  • Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 65% MODERATE, 19% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10.4% boom, 49.0% bust (this week). XGB high bust but historically unreliable (27% accuracy). ATL defense rank 20 is soft. ECR #9 RB supports usage. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 45.0ˢ | Def Rank: 20ˢ | ECR: 9ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 49% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.0 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BUST, 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.2% boom, 42.4% bust (this week). SF defense rank 12 is tough. ECR #46 RB = limited role. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5ˢ | Def Rank: 12ˢ | ECR: 42ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 26% BUST, 47% MODERATE, 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10.3% boom, 52.1% bust (this week). KC defense tough but XGB bust predictions unreliable. ECR #28. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 43.0ˢ | Def Rank: 15ˢ | ECR: 28ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE, 20% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.6% boom, 55.3% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 28 is soft BUT BAL -16.5 spread = BLOWOUT script. NYG will abandon run. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (top of bust range due to soft defense).

Context: O/U: 42.5ˢ | Def Rank: 28ˢ | ECR: 34ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BUST, 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10.3% boom, 22.8% bust (this week). XGB underestimates boom potential. IND defense rank 26 vs WR (SOFT), WR1 ECR, O/U 46.0 all point BOOM. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 22.0 pts (within 21-36 range).

Context: O/U: 46.0ˢ | Def Rank: 26ˢ | ECR: 1ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE, 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.8% boom, 21.9% bust (this week). High MC bust probability but XGB says lower this week. NO defense rank 14 is middling. Rookie variance. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 43.0ˢ | Def Rank: 18ˢ | ECR: 13ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: Player on IR/OUT. Setting projection to 0.0.

Context: O/U: 46.5ˢ | Def Rank: 6ˢ

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 11.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 26% MODERATE, 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 27.8% boom, 30.9% bust (this week). CRITICAL: Mahomes ACL tear. Backup QB + CLE defense rank 8 = double downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 4-11 bust range).

Context: O/U: 43.0ˢ | Def Rank: 2ˢ | ECR: 5ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BUST, 47% MODERATE, 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.0% boom, 48.0% bust (this week). XGB bust predictions only 27% accurate. BUF@DET has O/U 54.5 (highest of week). LAR defense rank 19 is middling. Mode: BOOM for upside ceiling. Projection: 18.0 pts (within 17-32 range).

Context: O/U: 54.5ˢ | Def Rank: 19ˢ | ECR: 15ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 57% MODERATE, 12% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.4% boom, 43.7% bust (this week). CLE defense rank 8 is tough. CHI offense struggling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 38.5ˢ | ECR: 35ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.38.011.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 26% BUST, 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.1% boom, 61.4% bust (this week). XGB bust unreliable. CAR defense rank 24 vs TE is SOFT. Tyler Shough streaming = could mean more TE targets. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 10.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5ˢ | Def Rank: 24ˢ | ECR: 16ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE, 13% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). BUF defense rank 2 vs TE (3.6 PPG allowed) = NIGHTMARE. Both MC and XGB agree bust likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Context: O/U: 54.5ˢ | Def Rank: 2ˢ | ECR: 13ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 24%

Notes: MC: 28% BUST, 49% MODERATE, 23% BOOM (historical). XGB: 27.9% boom, 23.7% bust (this week). Both agree MODERATE most likely. SEA defense rank 12 is middling. O/U 46.0 supports passing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE, 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.8% boom, 21.9% bust (this week). High MC bust probability but XGB says lower this week. NO defense rank 14 is middling. Rookie variance. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19%

Notes: Player on IR/OUT. Setting projection to 0.0.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.0 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42%

Notes: MC: 18% BUST, 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.2% boom, 42.4% bust (this week). SF defense rank 12 is tough. ECR #46 RB = limited role. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 25% BUST, 2% MODERATE, 73% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.7% boom, 39.2% bust (this week). Unusual MC distribution. Reddit: first to throw 3 TDs vs HOU all year in Week 15. But HOU defense rank 2 vs QB suggests regression. Mode: MODERATE (cautious). Projection: 16.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs DET

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 38% MODERATE, 22% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.0% boom, 59.1% bust (this week). BUF@DET O/U 54.5 = scoring explosion. DET offense prolific. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within -2-10 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • Averaging 8.0 pts vs 6.4 projected (+24%)
  • Trending up: 9.0 avg (last 3) vs 6.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.73)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE, 13% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). BUF defense rank 2 vs TE (3.6 PPG allowed) = NIGHTMARE. Both MC and XGB agree bust likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE, 20% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.6% boom, 55.3% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 28 is soft BUT BAL -16.5 spread = BLOWOUT script. NYG will abandon run. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (top of bust range due to soft defense).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 31% BUST, 57% MODERATE, 12% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.4% boom, 43.7% bust (this week). CLE defense rank 8 is tough. CHI offense struggling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.38.011.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Dalton Schultz TE HOU 8.9 9.0 28% 48% 23% MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson WR MIN 15.7 13.4 18% 60% 22% LOW
Jake Elliott K PHI 8.0 7.9 17% 29% 54% LOW
Caleb Williams QB CHI 15.9 17.1 13% 68% 19% LOW
Saints D/ST D/ST NO 5.9 8.2 11% 28% 61% LOW
Kenneth Gainwell RB PIT 12.6 10.0 10% 40% 51% LOW
Emeka Egbuka WR TB 12.0 11.9 9% 36% 55% LOW
A.J. Brown WR PHI 16.8 15.7 9% 35% 56% LOW
Jonathan Taylor RB IND 17.6 20.7 9% 36% 55% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 61%)

Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 51%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
Boom%52%
Bust%17%
EV9.1
BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)
Boom%45%
Bust%19%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%50%
Bust%18%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (13-28)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%31%
Bust%23%
EV8.3
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%31%
Bust%29%
EV7.5
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
ADD Zach Ertz ,
Boom%28%
Bust%24%
EV10.1
BUST: 16% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chargers D/ST 9.1 52% 17% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 50% 18% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.3 31% 23% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.5 31% 29% 0.0%
Zach Ertz 10.1 28% 24% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.6 27% 54% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 26% 28% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST 7.7 24% 38% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 22% 28% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.6 22% 43% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.5 21% 31% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston 0.0 21% 30% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 20% 9% 0.0%
Eddy Pineiro K 9.8 19% 42% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 19% 56% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 19% 56%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 12% 52%
Justin Fields 0.0 OUT:100% 12% 51%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 50% 18%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 22% 28%
Chuba Hubbard 11.5 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 21% 31%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 12% 56%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.8 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 8% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Matthew Golden 9.0 BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% 18% 48%
Cooper Kupp 9.9 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 16% 52%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 16% 47%
Rashid Shaheed 9.9 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 11% 58%
Keenan Allen 11.7 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 9% 55%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.3 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 31% 23%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 20% 9%
Colston Loveland 9.8 BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% 10% 60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.6 27% 54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 26% 28%
Eddy Pineiro 9.8 19% 42%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.5 31% 29%
Patriots D/ST 8.6 22% 43%
Dolphins D/ST 8.7 14% 63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-15 15:19

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+4.3
Expected Margin
127.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
95.0
Opponent (Proj)
32.5
Margin Std Dev
122.1
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -34.1 pts | Median: +8.4 pts | Ceiling: +48.9 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marcus Mariota QB MED 14.7 4.9-26.8 ↑15+: 56% | ↓5-: 10% Marcus Mariota
Bucky Irving RB MED 8.1 5.1-24.1 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 7.5 3.7-24.4 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 16% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 18.3 6.3-30.4 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 12.1 6.1-27.9 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 26.4 4.0-25.3 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 16% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 7.0 2.8-16.7 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Bears D/ST D/ST HIGH 18.0 0.4-16.1 ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 39% Bears D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 24.0 5.2-17.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 13.9 6.2-27.6 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 20.6 4.1-27.9 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 5.6 2.4-18.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 2.4 0.7-18.5 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 4.5 5.4-26.1 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 7% Tetairoa McMillan
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 2.8 3.5-22.2 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% Hunter Henry
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 4.0 1.1-18.3 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Caleb Williams QB HIGH 17.0 6.0-30.1 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% Caleb Williams
Jonathan Taylor RB HIGH 20.7 8.5-37.9 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Jonathan Taylor
Kenneth Gainwell RB HIGH 10.1 1.7-24.2 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 35% Kenneth Gainwell
Justin Jefferson WR HIGH 13.4 5.5-22.7 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 7% Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown WR HIGH 15.7 2.7-29.1 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 16% A.J. Brown
Emeka Egbuka WR HIGH 12.1 3.4-24.0 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 22% Emeka Egbuka
Dalton Schultz TE HIGH 9.0 2.7-17.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% Dalton Schultz
Saints D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.2 0.3-17.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 37% Saints D/ST
Jake Elliott K HIGH 8.0 2.2-14.8 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 33% Jake Elliott

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
C.J. Stroud QB HIGH 14.3 5.3-25.2 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 9% C.J. Stroud
Sean Tucker RB HIGH 10.1 1.6-27.6 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 38% Sean Tucker
Wan'Dale Robinson WR HIGH 12.5 4.7-24.6 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 12% Wan'Dale Robinson
Courtland Sutton WR HIGH 12.9 5.5-22.2 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 7% Courtland Sutton
Jakobi Meyers WR HIGH 12.5 5.2-21.7 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 9% Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir WR HIGH 10.8 1.9-20.4 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 25% Khalil Shakir
David Njoku TE LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% David Njoku

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.2 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.6 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.3 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 22.9 47% @ 12.0 26% @ 4.8 13.0
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 15.0 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.3 14.6
Bears D/ST D/ST 19% @ 15.3 47% @ 8.1 34% @ 2.9 7.7
Marcus Mariota QB 42% @ 22.3 43% @ 14.6 15% @ 4.8 16.4

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.513.0BOOM52.9%31.6%15.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR0.00.0OUT44.7%36.4%18.9%
Jordan LoveQB14.817.0MODERATE27.9%48.3%23.7%
Rashee RiceWR17.211.0BUST27.8%41.3%30.9%
Bears D/STD/ST6.79.0MODERATE25.7%40.6%33.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.211.0MODERATE19.8%58.2%21.9%
Jacoby BrissettQB13.916.0MODERATE15.7%45.2%39.2%
Luther Burden IIIWR8.17.0MODERATE14.4%41.9%43.7%
Tyjae SpearsRB10.06.0MODERATE14.2%43.4%42.4%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE13.1%25.5%61.4%
Marcus MariotaQB18.220.0BOOM13.1%29.1%57.9%
Rams D/STD/ST4.24.0BUST13.0%27.9%59.1%
Devin SingletaryRB10.86.0BUST12.6%32.1%55.3%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.918.0BOOM12.0%40.0%48.0%
Bucky IrvingRB15.214.0MODERATE10.4%40.6%49.0%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.622.0BOOM10.3%67.0%22.8%
Omarion HamptonRB11.710.0MODERATE10.3%37.6%52.1%
Hunter HenryTE10.35.0BUST9.9%30.2%59.9%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-4 1838.0 1668.7 +169.3 93.1 vs 120.6 W3 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 9-5 1756.6 1765.4 -8.8 122.8 vs 120.0 W1 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 8-6 1822.8 1539.0 +283.8 136.1 vs 93.4 W4 88.5%
4 Wookie of the Year 8-6 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 104.6 vs 115.1 W2 45.5%
5 Meat Pistols 8-6 1513.0 1664.9 -151.9 83.4 vs 193.0 L1 12.0%
6 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 115.1 vs 104.6 L2 42.1%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-7 1730.5 1660.2 +70.4 120.0 vs 122.8 L1 11.8%
8 Moms rules 6-8 1657.1 1755.2 -98.1 120.6 vs 93.1 L2 0.0%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-8 1584.0 1680.6 -96.6 105.5 vs 149.4 L4 0.0%
10 Smooth Roosters 6-8 1664.4 1644.9 +19.5 193.0 vs 83.4 W2 0.0%
11 The Warsaw Pact 5-9 1644.5 1752.0 -107.5 149.4 vs 105.5 W1 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-10 1678.3 1767.4 -89.1 93.4 vs 136.1 L3 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 93.1 @ 120.6 Moms rules
4th and pinches 122.8 @ 120.0 Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers 136.1 @ 93.4 Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year 104.6 @ 115.1 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 83.4 @ 193.0 Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 105.5 @ 149.4 The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 15 Research Analysis - Midweek Update (Monday)

MAJOR NEWS: Patrick Mahomes Torn ACL (2,562 upvotes)

  • Impact on Rashee Rice: With backup QB now starting for KC, Rice's projection needs downgrade
  • KC plays Cleveland (defense rank 8 vs WR) - tough matchup even before QB news
  • Reddit consensus: KC offense significantly downgraded for fantasy purposes

Key Injury/Player Updates from Reddit

Positive for Roster: - Jacoby Brissett: "First QB all year to throw 3 TDs vs HOU" (2,548 upvotes) - validates keeping Brissett as championship option - Christian Watson injury not serious - helps Jordan Love's passing game outlook

Jayden Daniels sitting out rest of season (breaking news) - Marcus Mariota takes over WSH offense full-time - Mariota vs NYG defense (rank 31/32 vs QB - allows 23.6 PPG) = ELITE matchup - Mariota has rushing upside that Daniels had

Reddit Community Sentiment

Positive Buzz: - Bucky Irving - consistent RB1 production - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR1 overall ECR this week - Bears D/ST - favorable matchup vs CLE

Mixed/Negative Buzz: - Rashee Rice - Mahomes injury devastates outlook - Hunter Henry - BUF defense #2 vs TEs (3.6 PPG allowed) - AVOID - Rams D/ST - facing high-powered DET offense (O/U 54.5)

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

High-Scoring (Boom Environments): - BUF @ DET: O/U 54.5 - Jameson Williams BOOM potential - GB @ SEA: O/U 46.0 - JSN, Jason Myers upside - NE @ ARI: O/U 46.5 - Brissett sneaky upside

Low-Scoring/Blowout Risk: - BAL @ NYG: O/U 42.5, spread -16.5 - Singletary negative game script risk - CHI @ MIN: O/U 43.5 - Bears offense limited

Defense Matchup Analysis

SMASH SPOTS (Defense rank 24+): - Marcus Mariota vs NYG (rank 31) - ELITE - Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs IND (rank 26) - EXCELLENT - Devin Singletary vs WSH (rank 28) - but game script concern - Juwan Johnson vs CAR (rank 24) - TE smash

AVOID SPOTS (Defense rank 10 or better): - Hunter Henry vs BUF (rank 2) - NIGHTMARE matchup - Jacoby Brissett vs HOU (rank 2) - Despite Week 15 success, regression likely - Rashee Rice vs CLE (rank 8) + backup QB - DOUBLE WHAMMY

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS (15+ pts expected): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR, soft IND defense) - Marcus Mariota (elite QB matchup) - Jameson Williams (highest O/U game) - Bucky Irving (RB9 ECR, solid floor)

SOLID STARTERS (10-15 pts): - Jason Myers (boom XGB 53%, good game environment) - Jordan Love (moderate matchup, consistent) - Bears D/ST (Cleveland struggling)

ACCEPTABLE (7-10 pts): - Juwan Johnson (soft TE matchup) - Tetairoa McMillan (rookie variance) - Omarion Hampton (tough KC defense)

SIT IF POSSIBLE: - Hunter Henry (BUF TE defense #2) - Rashee Rice (Mahomes out, CLE defense) - Rams D/ST (DET scoring machine) - Devin Singletary (blowout risk) - Tyjae Spears (SF defense, limited role)

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jacoby Brissett

Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice (Mahomes injury), Hunter Henry, Rams D/ST

Mixed Buzz: Marcus Mariota, Tetairoa McMillan

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 15)

Weeks 16/17 Playoff Waiver Wire Strategy
Round 1: Opening Arguments
Consensus: Majority
DROP: | ADD:
0/4 agents agree

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

4.6
Our Team MAE
18 players
5.7
Opponent MAE
9 players
5.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
30
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.0
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent TE Dalton Schultz 8.9 - 21.6 +12.7
Opponent RB Kenneth Gainwell 12.6 - 0.0 -12.6
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 12.0 +12.0
Opponent WR Justin Jefferson 15.7 - 4.2 -11.5
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 13.0 24.0 +11.0
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.7 9.0 18.0 +9.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 18.0 26.4 +8.4
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 7.0 14.4 +7.4
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 11.0 4.5 -6.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 8.1 -5.9
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 18.2 20.0 14.7 -5.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 4.0 -1.0 -5.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 4.8 +4.8
Opponent WR A.J. Brown 16.8 - 12.1 -4.7
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 16.0 20.6 +4.6
Opponent RB Jonathan Taylor 17.6 - 13.1 -4.5
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 22.0 18.3 -3.7
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 6.0 2.4 -3.6
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 17.0 13.9 -3.1
Opponent QB Caleb Williams 15.9 - 19.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.0 -3.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 7.5 -2.5
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 5.0 2.8 -2.2
Opponent WR Emeka Egbuka 12.0 - 10.4 -1.6
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 11.0 12.1 +1.1
Opponent K Jake Elliott 8.0 - 7.0 -1.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.0 6.0 5.6 -0.4
Opponent D/ST Saints D/ST 5.9 - 6.0 +0.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 14.8 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.0 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.0 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.6 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 30.6 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.6 pts
90th percentile 25.7 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
20% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
45% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 17.0 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 10.0 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 11.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.9 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 8.5 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.9 pts
90th percentile 17.0 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
53% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 16.7 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 14.6 pts
90th percentile 25.0 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 4.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 10.3 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 22.0 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 10.8 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.6 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
09182736Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 17.4 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Bears D/ST (D/ST)
Bears D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.7 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 6.7 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
26% BOOM
Marcus Mariota (QB)
Marcus Mariota distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 18.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 16.3 pts
90th percentile 26.9 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Justin Jefferson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.7 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
6%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 12.0 pts
90th percentile 22.7 pts
MC (Historical)
6% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
A.J. Brown (WR)
A.J. Brown distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
19%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
37%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 14.1 pts
90th percentile 29.0 pts
MC (Historical)
37% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Jonathan Taylor distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 17.6 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 8.5 pts
Median (50th) 17.4 pts
90th percentile 37.6 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)
Kenneth Gainwell distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.6 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 1.8 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 23.8 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
Emeka Egbuka distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.0 pts
BUST
41%
MODERATE
31%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 9.6 pts
90th percentile 23.9 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Caleb Williams (QB)
Caleb Williams distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 6.0 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 30.0 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Dalton Schultz distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 17.1 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Jake Elliott (K)
Jake Elliott distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.1 pts
90th percentile 14.7 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Saints D/ST (D/ST)
Saints D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 0.3 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 17.2 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM