55%

Win Probability

+4.3

Projected Margin

CI: [-15.7 to +24.3]

Boom Potential

Jason Myers

Bust Risk

Jameson Williams (48%), Omarion Hampton (52%), Marcus Mariota (58%), Bucky Irving (49%), Juwan Johnson (61%)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Marcus Mariota	NYG	18.2	20.0	BOOM	HIGH
RB	Bucky Irving	ATL	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	HIGH
RB	Omarion Hampton	KC	11.7	10.0	MODERATE	LOW
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	IND	20.6	22.0	BOOM	HIGH
WR	Jameson Williams	LAR	13.9	18.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	CAR	9.7	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	IND	8.5	13.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
D/ST	Bears D/ST	CLE	6.7	9.0	MODERATE	HIGH
WR	Rashee Rice	LAC	17.2	11.0	BUST	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chargers D/ST () 52% boom / 17% bust

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 45% boom / 19% bust

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 18% bust

ADD Evan Engram (TE) 31% boom / 23% bust

Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings (4-10). With projected 136 points vs opponent's ~113 points, we enter as clear favorites. KEY MOVES: Start Marcus Mariota (QB13 ECR vs NYG's 31st-ranked pass defense), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR in elite matchup vs IND), and Bears D/ST (top-5 defense vs struggling Cleveland). WEATHER ALERT: Jordan Love (QB) faces extreme cold in Green Bay (9°F, -35 wind chill) - benched in favor of Mariota. Hunter Henry benched due to Buffalo's elite TE coverage (rank 2, allow only 3.6 fppg). LOCKED: Bucky Irving (8.1 pts actual from TNF). FLEX: Rashee Rice over Tetairoa McMillan (16.0 vs 13.0).

Key Insights

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is ECR #1 WR with 96.5-yard receiving prop vs IND's 25th-ranked WR defense
Bears D/ST in smash spot: CLE offense ranks 29th, low 38.5 game total, CHI -7.5 favorites
Hunter Henry sits vs BUF's #1 TE defense (allows only 3.6 fpts/game) - Juwan Johnson starts
Marcus Mariota has rushing upside (30.5 prop line) vs soft NYG defense in 46.5-total game
Bucky Irving locked with 8.1 pts from Thursday - below 14.5 pre-game projection
Rashee Rice faces toughest matchup: LAC allows fewest WR fantasy points in NFL (13.5/game)
DET-LAR has highest game total of week (54.5) - Williams benefits as WR in that offense
Tetairoa McMillan (ECR WR14) sits with favorable NO matchup (28th vs WR) in favor of Williams

Matchup Status (Week 15)

136.1 - 93.4 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Completed (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs LLM
Marcus Mariota	QB	QB	✓ 14.7	18.2	20.0	-5.3
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	✓ 8.1	15.2	14.0	-5.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	✓ 7.5	11.7	10.0	-2.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	✓ 18.3	20.6	22.0	-3.7
Rashee Rice	WR	WR	✓ 12.1	17.2	11.0	+1.1
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	✓ 7.0	9.7	10.0	-3.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 26.4	13.9	18.0	+8.4
Jason Myers	K	K	✓ 24.0	8.5	13.0	+11.0
Bears D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 18.0	6.7	9.0	+9.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 2.4	10.8	6.0	-3.6
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 2.8	10.3	5.0	-2.2
Jacoby Brissett (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 20.6	13.9	16.0	+4.6
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 13.9	14.8	17.0	-3.1
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 4.5	13.2	11.0	-6.5
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 5.6	10.0	6.0	-0.4

Games Pending (2)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	4.2	4.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

136.1 Actual

127.0 LLM Total

136.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Completed (14)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Caleb Williams	QB	QB	✓ 19.0	15.9	---	+3.0
Jonathan Taylor	RB	RB	✓ 13.1	17.6	---	-4.5
A.J. Brown	WR	WR	✓ 12.1	16.8	---	-4.7
Justin Jefferson	WR	WR	✓ 4.2	15.7	---	-11.5
Dalton Schultz	TE	TE	✓ 21.6	8.9	---	+12.7
Emeka Egbuka	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 10.4	12.0	---	-1.6
Jake Elliott	K	K	✓ 7.0	8.0	---	-1.0
Saints D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 6.0	5.9	---	+0.1
C.J. Stroud (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 23.4	17.3	---	+6.1
Courtland Sutton (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 24.3	13.1	---	+11.2
Jakobi Meyers (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 12.1	11.7	---	+0.4
Khalil Shakir (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 11.5	10.5	---	+1.0
Sean Tucker (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 6.7	2.9	---	+3.8
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 16.4	14.7	---	+1.7

Opponent Games Pending (2)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	RB	12.6	---
David Njoku (bench)	TE	BE	0.0	---

93.4 Opp Actual

95.0 Opp LLM Total

105.9 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +32.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 28% BUST, 49% MODERATE, 23% BOOM (historical). XGB: 27.9% boom, 23.7% bust (this week). Both agree MODERATE most likely. SEA defense rank 12 is middling. O/U 46.0 supports passing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 46.0^ˢ | Def Rank: 5^ˢ | ECR: 17^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BUST, 2% MODERATE, 73% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.7% boom, 39.2% bust (this week). Unusual MC distribution. Reddit: first to throw 3 TDs vs HOU all year in Week 15. But HOU defense rank 2 vs QB suggests regression. Mode: MODERATE (cautious). Projection: 16.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 2^ˢ | ECR: 21^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Marcus Mariota (WSH vs NYG)

Projections: ESPN 18.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 15% BUST, 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.1% boom, 57.9% bust (this week). XGB bust unreliable. NYG defense rank 31 vs QB (23.6 PPG allowed) = ELITE matchup. Jayden Daniels shutdown means full starting role. Rushing upside intact. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within 13-31 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 31^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	-	-2.1	-2.1
13	BYE	14.8	-	23.3	+8.4
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BYE	18.2	-	15.4	-2.8
10	BYE	16.3	-	18.7	+2.4
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BYE	16.9	-	11.3	-5.6
7	BYE	0.0	-	3.9	+3.9
6	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	ATL	0.0	-	16.2	+16.2
3	BYE	17.0	-	20.3	+3.2
2	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	BYE	0.2	-	0.0	-0.2

Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 65% MODERATE, 19% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10.4% boom, 49.0% bust (this week). XGB high bust but historically unreliable (27% accuracy). ATL defense rank 20 is soft. ECR #9 RB supports usage. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 45.0^ˢ | Def Rank: 20^ˢ | ECR: 9^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 49% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.0 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BUST, 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.2% boom, 42.4% bust (this week). SF defense rank 12 is tough. ECR #46 RB = limited role. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 12^ˢ | ECR: 42^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 26% BUST, 47% MODERATE, 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10.3% boom, 52.1% bust (this week). KC defense tough but XGB bust predictions unreliable. ECR #28. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 43.0^ˢ | Def Rank: 15^ˢ | ECR: 28^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE, 20% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.6% boom, 55.3% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 28 is soft BUT BAL -16.5 spread = BLOWOUT script. NYG will abandon run. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (top of bust range due to soft defense).

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 28^ˢ | ECR: 34^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BUST, 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10.3% boom, 22.8% bust (this week). XGB underestimates boom potential. IND defense rank 26 vs WR (SOFT), WR1 ECR, O/U 46.0 all point BOOM. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 22.0 pts (within 21-36 range).

Context: O/U: 46.0^ˢ | Def Rank: 26^ˢ | ECR: 1^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE, 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.8% boom, 21.9% bust (this week). High MC bust probability but XGB says lower this week. NO defense rank 14 is middling. Rookie variance. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 43.0^ˢ | Def Rank: 18^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: Player on IR/OUT. Setting projection to 0.0.

Context: O/U: 46.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 6^ˢ

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 11.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 26% MODERATE, 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 27.8% boom, 30.9% bust (this week). CRITICAL: Mahomes ACL tear. Backup QB + CLE defense rank 8 = double downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 4-11 bust range).

Context: O/U: 43.0^ˢ | Def Rank: 2^ˢ | ECR: 5^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BUST, 47% MODERATE, 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.0% boom, 48.0% bust (this week). XGB bust predictions only 27% accurate. BUF@DET has O/U 54.5 (highest of week). LAR defense rank 19 is middling. Mode: BOOM for upside ceiling. Projection: 18.0 pts (within 17-32 range).

Context: O/U: 54.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 19^ˢ | ECR: 15^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 57% MODERATE, 12% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.4% boom, 43.7% bust (this week). CLE defense rank 8 is tough. CHI offense struggling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 38.5^ˢ | ECR: 35^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 26% BUST, 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.1% boom, 61.4% bust (this week). XGB bust unreliable. CAR defense rank 24 vs TE is SOFT. Tyler Shough streaming = could mean more TE targets. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 10.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 24^ˢ | ECR: 16^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE, 13% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). BUF defense rank 2 vs TE (3.6 PPG allowed) = NIGHTMARE. Both MC and XGB agree bust likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Context: O/U: 54.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 2^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 24%

Notes: MC: 28% BUST, 49% MODERATE, 23% BOOM (historical). XGB: 27.9% boom, 23.7% bust (this week). Both agree MODERATE most likely. SEA defense rank 12 is middling. O/U 46.0 supports passing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE, 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.8% boom, 21.9% bust (this week). High MC bust probability but XGB says lower this week. NO defense rank 14 is middling. Rookie variance. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19%

Notes: Player on IR/OUT. Setting projection to 0.0.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.0 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42%

Notes: MC: 18% BUST, 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.2% boom, 42.4% bust (this week). SF defense rank 12 is tough. ECR #46 RB = limited role. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 25% BUST, 2% MODERATE, 73% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.7% boom, 39.2% bust (this week). Unusual MC distribution. Reddit: first to throw 3 TDs vs HOU all year in Week 15. But HOU defense rank 2 vs QB suggests regression. Mode: MODERATE (cautious). Projection: 16.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs DET

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 38% MODERATE, 22% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.0% boom, 59.1% bust (this week). BUF@DET O/U 54.5 = scoring explosion. DET offense prolific. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within -2-10 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

Averaging 8.0 pts vs 6.4 projected (+24%)
Trending up: 9.0 avg (last 3) vs 6.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.73)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE, 13% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). BUF defense rank 2 vs TE (3.6 PPG allowed) = NIGHTMARE. Both MC and XGB agree bust likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE, 20% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.6% boom, 55.3% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 28 is soft BUT BAL -16.5 spread = BLOWOUT script. NYG will abandon run. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (top of bust range due to soft defense).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 31% BUST, 57% MODERATE, 12% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14.4% boom, 43.7% bust (this week). CLE defense rank 8 is tough. CHI offense struggling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.9	9.0	28%	48%	23%	MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.7	13.4	18%	60%	22%	LOW
Jake Elliott	K	PHI	8.0	7.9	17%	29%	54%	LOW
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	15.9	17.1	13%	68%	19%	LOW
Saints D/ST	D/ST	NO	5.9	8.2	11%	28%	61%	LOW
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	12.6	10.0	10%	40%	51%	LOW
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.0	11.9	9%	36%	55%	LOW
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.8	15.7	9%	35%	56%	LOW
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	17.6	20.7	9%	36%	55%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 61%)

Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 51%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD Chargers D/ST ,

Boom%52%

Bust%17%

EV9.1

BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. WR

Boom%45%

Bust%19%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%50%

Bust%18%

EV12.2

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (13-28)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%31%

Bust%23%

EV8.3

BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%31%

Bust%29%

EV7.5

BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)

ADD Zach Ertz ,

Boom%28%

Bust%24%

EV10.1

BUST: 16% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chargers D/ST		9.1	52%	17%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.2	50%	18%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.3	31%	23%	0.0%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.5	31%	29%	0.0%
Zach Ertz		10.1	28%	24%	0.0%
Michael Badgley	K	8.6	27%	54%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.3	26%	28%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST		7.7	24%	38%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	22%	28%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.6	22%	43%	0.0%
Chuba Hubbard	RB	11.5	21%	31%	0.0%
Quentin Johnston		0.0	21%	30%	0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.5	20%	9%	0.0%
Eddy Pineiro	K	9.8	19%	42%	0.0%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.6	19%	56%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Aaron Rodgers	14.6	BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22%	19%	56%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	12%	52%
Justin Fields	0.0	OUT:100%	12%	51%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.2	BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13%	50%	18%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	22%	28%
Chuba Hubbard	11.5	BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29%	21%	31%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24%	12%	56%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8.8	BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14%	8%	58%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Matthew Golden	9.0	BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31%	18%	48%
Cooper Kupp	9.9	BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	16%	52%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23%	16%	47%
Rashid Shaheed	9.9	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	11%	58%
Keenan Allen	11.7	BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10%	9%	55%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.3	BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2%	31%	23%
Harold Fannin Jr.	10.5	BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16%	20%	9%
Colston Loveland	9.8	BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16%	10%	60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Michael Badgley	8.6	27%	54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.3	26%	28%
Eddy Pineiro	9.8	19%	42%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.5	31%	29%
Patriots D/ST	8.6	22%	43%
Dolphins D/ST	8.7	14%	63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-15 15:19

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+4.3

Expected Margin

127.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

95.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.5

Margin Std Dev

122.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -34.1 pts | Median: +8.4 pts | Ceiling: +48.9 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Marcus Mariota	QB	MED	14.7	4.9-26.8	↑15+: 56% \| ↓5-: 10%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	8.1	5.1-24.1	↑15+: 44% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	7.5	3.7-24.4	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 16%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	18.3	6.3-30.4	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	12.1	6.1-27.9	↑15+: 57% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	26.4	4.0-25.3	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 16%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	7.0	2.8-16.7	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 23%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	18.0	0.4-16.1	↑15+: 13% \| ↓5-: 39%
Jason Myers	K	MED	24.0	5.2-17.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 9%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	13.9	6.2-27.6	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	HIGH	20.6	4.1-27.9	↑15+: 64% \| ↓5-: 13%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	5.6	2.4-18.6	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 26%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	2.4	0.7-18.5	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 51%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	4.5	5.4-26.1	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 7%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	2.8	3.5-22.2	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 25%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	4.0	1.1-18.3	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 34%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Caleb Williams	QB	HIGH	17.0	6.0-30.1	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jonathan Taylor	RB	HIGH	20.7	8.5-37.9	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 0%
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.7-24.2	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 35%
Justin Jefferson	WR	HIGH	13.4	5.5-22.7	↑15+: 39% \| ↓5-: 7%
A.J. Brown	WR	HIGH	15.7	2.7-29.1	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 16%
Emeka Egbuka	WR	HIGH	12.1	3.4-24.0	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 22%
Dalton Schultz	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.7-17.3	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 31%
Saints D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.2	0.3-17.2	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 37%
Jake Elliott	K	HIGH	8.0	2.2-14.8	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 33%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
C.J. Stroud	QB	HIGH	14.3	5.3-25.2	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 9%
Sean Tucker	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.6-27.6	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 38%
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	HIGH	12.5	4.7-24.6	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 12%
Courtland Sutton	WR	HIGH	12.9	5.5-22.2	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 7%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	HIGH	12.5	5.2-21.7	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 9%
Khalil Shakir	WR	HIGH	10.8	1.9-20.4	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 25%
David Njoku	TE	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	19% @ 24.2	65% @ 14.2	17% @ 5.0	14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	29% @ 28.6	41% @ 18.7	30% @ 7.6	18.2
Rashee Rice	WR	43% @ 24.3	26% @ 16.0	31% @ 7.4	16.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	27% @ 22.9	47% @ 12.0	26% @ 4.8	13.0
Jason Myers	K	20% @ 16.9	47% @ 11.8	33% @ 6.4	11.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	32% @ 15.0	42% @ 9.1	26% @ 3.7	9.6
Jameson Williams	WR	24% @ 24.1	47% @ 15.7	30% @ 5.3	14.6
Bears D/ST	D/ST	19% @ 15.3	47% @ 8.1	34% @ 2.9	7.7
Marcus Mariota	QB	42% @ 22.3	43% @ 14.6	15% @ 4.8	16.4

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Jason Myers	K	8.5	13.0	BOOM	52.9%	31.6%	15.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	0.0	0.0	OUT	44.7%	36.4%	18.9%
Jordan Love	QB	14.8	17.0	MODERATE	27.9%	48.3%	23.7%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.2	11.0	BUST	27.8%	41.3%	30.9%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	6.7	9.0	MODERATE	25.7%	40.6%	33.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	11.0	MODERATE	19.8%	58.2%	21.9%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	13.9	16.0	MODERATE	15.7%	45.2%	39.2%
Luther Burden III	WR	8.1	7.0	MODERATE	14.4%	41.9%	43.7%
Tyjae Spears	RB	10.0	6.0	MODERATE	14.2%	43.4%	42.4%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	10.0	MODERATE	13.1%	25.5%	61.4%
Marcus Mariota	QB	18.2	20.0	BOOM	13.1%	29.1%	57.9%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	4.0	BUST	13.0%	27.9%	59.1%
Devin Singletary	RB	10.8	6.0	BUST	12.6%	32.1%	55.3%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	18.0	BOOM	12.0%	40.0%	48.0%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	10.4%	40.6%	49.0%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.6	22.0	BOOM	10.3%	67.0%	22.8%
Omarion Hampton	RB	11.7	10.0	MODERATE	10.3%	37.6%	52.1%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.3	5.0	BUST	9.9%	30.2%	59.9%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-4	1838.0	1668.7	+169.3	93.1 vs 120.6	W3	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	9-5	1756.6	1765.4	-8.8	122.8 vs 120.0	W1	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	8-6	1822.8	1539.0	+283.8	136.1 vs 93.4	W4	88.5%
4	Wookie of the Year	8-6	1705.9	1731.9	-26.0	104.6 vs 115.1	W2	45.5%
5	Meat Pistols	8-6	1513.0	1664.9	-151.9	83.4 vs 193.0	L1	12.0%
6	Ryan's Rowdy Team	7-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	115.1 vs 104.6	L2	42.1%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-7	1730.5	1660.2	+70.4	120.0 vs 122.8	L1	11.8%
8	Moms rules	6-8	1657.1	1755.2	-98.1	120.6 vs 93.1	L2	0.0%
9	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-8	1584.0	1680.6	-96.6	105.5 vs 149.4	L4	0.0%
10	Smooth Roosters	6-8	1664.4	1644.9	+19.5	193.0 vs 83.4	W2	0.0%
11	The Warsaw Pact	5-9	1644.5	1752.0	-107.5	149.4 vs 105.5	W1	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-10	1678.3	1767.4	-89.1	93.4 vs 136.1	L3	0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	93.1	@	120.6	Moms rules
4th and pinches	122.8	@	120.0	Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers	136.1	@	93.4	Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year	104.6	@	115.1	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols	83.4	@	193.0	Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	105.5	@	149.4	The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 15 Research Analysis - Midweek Update (Monday)

MAJOR NEWS: Patrick Mahomes Torn ACL (2,562 upvotes)

Impact on Rashee Rice: With backup QB now starting for KC, Rice's projection needs downgrade
KC plays Cleveland (defense rank 8 vs WR) - tough matchup even before QB news
Reddit consensus: KC offense significantly downgraded for fantasy purposes

Key Injury/Player Updates from Reddit

Positive for Roster: - Jacoby Brissett: "First QB all year to throw 3 TDs vs HOU" (2,548 upvotes) - validates keeping Brissett as championship option - Christian Watson injury not serious - helps Jordan Love's passing game outlook

Jayden Daniels sitting out rest of season (breaking news) - Marcus Mariota takes over WSH offense full-time - Mariota vs NYG defense (rank 31/32 vs QB - allows 23.6 PPG) = ELITE matchup - Mariota has rushing upside that Daniels had

Reddit Community Sentiment

Positive Buzz: - Bucky Irving - consistent RB1 production - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR1 overall ECR this week - Bears D/ST - favorable matchup vs CLE

Mixed/Negative Buzz: - Rashee Rice - Mahomes injury devastates outlook - Hunter Henry - BUF defense #2 vs TEs (3.6 PPG allowed) - AVOID - Rams D/ST - facing high-powered DET offense (O/U 54.5)

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

High-Scoring (Boom Environments): - BUF @ DET: O/U 54.5 - Jameson Williams BOOM potential - GB @ SEA: O/U 46.0 - JSN, Jason Myers upside - NE @ ARI: O/U 46.5 - Brissett sneaky upside

Low-Scoring/Blowout Risk: - BAL @ NYG: O/U 42.5, spread -16.5 - Singletary negative game script risk - CHI @ MIN: O/U 43.5 - Bears offense limited

Defense Matchup Analysis

SMASH SPOTS (Defense rank 24+): - Marcus Mariota vs NYG (rank 31) - ELITE - Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs IND (rank 26) - EXCELLENT - Devin Singletary vs WSH (rank 28) - but game script concern - Juwan Johnson vs CAR (rank 24) - TE smash

AVOID SPOTS (Defense rank 10 or better): - Hunter Henry vs BUF (rank 2) - NIGHTMARE matchup - Jacoby Brissett vs HOU (rank 2) - Despite Week 15 success, regression likely - Rashee Rice vs CLE (rank 8) + backup QB - DOUBLE WHAMMY

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS (15+ pts expected): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR, soft IND defense) - Marcus Mariota (elite QB matchup) - Jameson Williams (highest O/U game) - Bucky Irving (RB9 ECR, solid floor)

SOLID STARTERS (10-15 pts): - Jason Myers (boom XGB 53%, good game environment) - Jordan Love (moderate matchup, consistent) - Bears D/ST (Cleveland struggling)

ACCEPTABLE (7-10 pts): - Juwan Johnson (soft TE matchup) - Tetairoa McMillan (rookie variance) - Omarion Hampton (tough KC defense)

SIT IF POSSIBLE: - Hunter Henry (BUF TE defense #2) - Rashee Rice (Mahomes out, CLE defense) - Rams D/ST (DET scoring machine) - Devin Singletary (blowout risk) - Tyjae Spears (SF defense, limited role)

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Mahomes ACL tear
Brissett Week 15 breakout
Jayden Daniels shutdown

Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jacoby Brissett

Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice (Mahomes injury), Hunter Henry, Rams D/ST

Mixed Buzz: Marcus Mariota, Tetairoa McMillan

Sources

Web ()
Web ()
Web ()
Web ()
Web ()
Web ()

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 15)

Weeks 16/17 Playoff Waiver Wire Strategy

Round 1: Opening Arguments

Consensus: Majority

DROP: | ADD:

0/4 agents agree

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

4.6

Our Team MAE

18 players

5.7

Opponent MAE

9 players

5.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.0

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Opponent	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	-	21.6	+12.7
Opponent	RB	Kenneth Gainwell	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
Free Agent	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	0.0	-	12.0	+12.0
Opponent	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	-	4.2	-11.5
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	13.0	24.0	+11.0
Our Team	D/ST	Bears D/ST	6.7	9.0	18.0	+9.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	18.0	26.4	+8.4
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	7.0	14.4	+7.4
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	11.0	4.5	-6.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	8.1	-5.9
Our Team	QB	Marcus Mariota	18.2	20.0	14.7	-5.3
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	4.0	-1.0	-5.0
Free Agent	RB	Chuba Hubbard	0.0	-	4.8	+4.8
Opponent	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	-	12.1	-4.7
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	16.0	20.6	+4.6
Opponent	RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.6	-	13.1	-4.5
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.6	22.0	18.3	-3.7
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	6.0	2.4	-3.6
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	17.0	13.9	-3.1
Opponent	QB	Caleb Williams	15.9	-	19.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.0	-3.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	10.0	7.5	-2.5
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	5.0	2.8	-2.2
Opponent	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	-	10.4	-1.6
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	11.0	12.1	+1.1
Opponent	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	-	7.0	-1.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.0	6.0	5.6	-0.4
Opponent	D/ST	Saints D/ST	5.9	-	6.0	+0.1
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Steelers D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3

Our Team MAE

16 players

7.0

Opponent MAE

10 players

13.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	22.3	+22.3
Free Agent	RB	Devin Neal	0.0	-	15.4	+15.4
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	8.9	8.9	24.0	+15.1
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.9	20.1	6.3	-13.8
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	9.1	11.9	0.6	-11.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.6
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	5.2	6.3	15.0	+8.7
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	5.3	7.5	0.3	-7.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	12.1	8.0	14.7	+6.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.9	22.0	28.1	+6.1
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	6.7	9.2	3.6	-5.6
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.0	9.6	14.1	+4.5
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	8.4	8.2	4.0	-4.2
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.3	10.0	14.0	+4.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	6.8	9.0	6.0	-3.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	10.3	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	3.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.8	-2.2
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.3
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.3
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	16.4	16.0	16.1	+0.1
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	3.2	7.8	7.7	-0.1
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.3	19.0	19.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.8	17.3	17.3	+0.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ray Davis	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

$projection_accuracy_by_position.png$

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.